Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Donato wins 44.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 45.4% vs Carrick 53.7% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 94.4%
Defensive zone
Donato 69.3%
Neutral zone
Donato 85.0%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 77.4%
77.4%
22.6%
Donato
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Donato
Carrick
Last 7: Donato 1-6 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
1
0
Donato
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
4
Donato
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Donato
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (400)
53.8% (654)
-10.3%
Power Play
48.7% (119)
0.0% (2)
+48.7%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
63.9% (36)
-30.6%
On power play, Donato has a +48.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Donato is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Donato shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Home / Away
Donato
Carrick
Home
50.2% (279)
50.0% (328)
Away
38.2% (246)
58.0% (364)
By Period
Donato
Carrick
P1
44.6%
56.7%
P2
46.6%
51.1%
P3
42.0%
54.8%
Final 5 min
49.3%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.6%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 05:38 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 02:09 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 02:01 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 15:16 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 07:58 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 03:38 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 2 | 09:08 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |