Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.5% vs 48.3%). Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Donato wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 48.1% vs Johnston 48.5% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 63.8%
Defensive zone
Johnston 50.4%
Neutral zone
Donato 52.8%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Donato
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Donato
Johnston
Last 5: Donato 1-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Donato
Johnston
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Donato
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Donato
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (258)
47.8% (623)
+0.3%
Power Play
43.2% (37)
50.8% (63)
-7.6%
On power play, Johnston has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Donato is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (126).
Donato shoots left. Johnston is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Donato
Johnston
Home
45.8% (142)
47.6% (351)
Away
49.0% (153)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Donato
Johnston
P1
48.1%
49.6%
P2
46.6%
47.3%
P3
46.8%
48.0%
OT
75.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
56.7%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
47.5%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:14 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 05:46 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 04:20 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 04:04 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |