Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Donato wins 44.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 44.9% vs Johnston 49.1% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 72.0%
Defensive zone
Johnston 74.7%
Neutral zone
Johnston 54.8%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Donato
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Donato
Johnston
Last 8: Donato 4-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
4
2
Donato
Johnston
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Donato
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Donato
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (1,179)
49.3% (2,189)
-5.1%
Power Play
46.3% (246)
52.6% (173)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
44.7% (237)
-8.3%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Donato is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (547).
Donato shoots left. Johnston is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,967).
Home / Away
Donato
Johnston
Home
47.2% (743)
49.2% (1,319)
Away
41.6% (693)
49.0% (1,280)
By Period
Donato
Johnston
P1
43.4%
50.1%
P2
45.1%
48.3%
P3
44.4%
48.8%
OT
70.0%
51.6%
Final 5 min
47.5%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.5%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:14 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 06:55 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 05:46 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 04:20 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 04:04 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 02:04 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 16:40 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 13:11 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |