Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.8% vs Hartman 45.3% (+9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 86.9%
Defensive zone
Hartman 56.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 63.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Duchene
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Hartman
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Hartman
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
1
Duchene
Hartman
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Hartman
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (162)
44.8% (936)
+2.1%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
49.4% (154)
+23.8%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
33.3% (54)
+66.7%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Duchene is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. Hartman is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (800).
Home / Away
Duchene
Hartman
Home
58.4% (125)
47.4% (568)
Away
48.4% (95)
42.4% (576)
By Period
Duchene
Hartman
P1
56.9%
47.2%
P2
52.5%
43.4%
P3
51.9%
43.8%
OT
80.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
52.8%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2022 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 00:26 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 2 | 15:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 1 | 13:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 1 | 10:32 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |