Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 46.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 47.1% vs Johansen 54.3% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 50.1%
Defensive zone
Johansen 86.2%
Neutral zone
Johansen 63.9%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
Matthews
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Matthews
Johansen
Last 9: Matthews 7-2 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
0
Matthews
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Matthews
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
1
Matthews
Johansen
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (1,000)
54.0% (1,251)
-7.8%
Power Play
53.6% (125)
58.9% (158)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
55.6% (63)
-41.3%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +41.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Matthews is 46.5% vs right-shot opponents (449).
Matthews shoots left. Johansen is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,042).
Home / Away
Matthews
Johansen
Home
48.4% (562)
56.3% (746)
Away
45.3% (570)
52.8% (726)
By Period
Matthews
Johansen
P1
51.3%
54.0%
P2
44.5%
53.8%
P3
44.6%
55.7%
OT
55.6%
59.1%
Final 5 min
47.9%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
46.8%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2017 | 3 | 19:01 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 3 | 07:18 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 2 | 16:25 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 2 | 02:08 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 2 | 00:11 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 2 | 00:05 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 30, 2017 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |