Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 49.5% vs Johansen 58.2% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 76.2%
Defensive zone
Hayes 75.4%
Neutral zone
Hayes 73.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 75.4%
75.4%
24.6%
Hayes
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hayes
Johansen
Last 5: Hayes 1-4 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
4
Hayes
Johansen
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (557)
59.8% (625)
-11.3%
Power Play
53.3% (107)
58.2% (196)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
51.9% (27)
+6.4%
On even strength, Johansen has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Hayes is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (237).
Hayes shoots left. Johansen is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Hayes
Johansen
Home
50.8% (313)
60.3% (436)
Away
48.2% (363)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Hayes
Johansen
P1
52.3%
61.3%
P2
47.7%
60.4%
P3
48.4%
56.0%
OT
50.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
50.9%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 07:28 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 07:18 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 17:21 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |