Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Johansen 52.8% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 63.0%
Defensive zone
Johansen 55.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 69.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Duchene
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Duchene
Johansen
Last 7: Duchene 5-2 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Johansen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Johansen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
51.9% (597)
+4.6%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
57.9% (133)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
54.3% (81)
-32.1%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +32.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. Johansen is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (584).
Home / Away
Duchene
Johansen
Home
56.6% (318)
55.8% (387)
Away
56.4% (319)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Duchene
Johansen
P1
57.2%
50.0%
P2
55.1%
56.2%
P3
55.6%
52.6%
OT
81.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 13:30 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 07:25 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 07:19 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 01:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 03:32 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 01:03 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 03:14 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |