Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Johansen wins 60.4% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 58.2% vs Lorentz 48.2% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 86.3%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 50.2%
Neutral zone
Johansen 70.5%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 86.3%
86.3%
13.7%
Johansen
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Johansen
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
0
Johansen
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
59.8% (625)
48.3% (497)
+11.5%
Power Play
58.2% (196)
63.6% (11)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (27)
38.5% (39)
+13.4%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Johansen is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Johansen shoots right. Lorentz is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (203).
Home / Away
Johansen
Lorentz
Home
60.3% (436)
50.4% (238)
Away
58.0% (412)
46.0% (309)
By Period
Johansen
Lorentz
P1
61.3%
49.1%
P2
60.4%
48.0%
P3
56.0%
47.2%
OT
56.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.8%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2022 | 1 | 06:25 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |