Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Johansen wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 52.8% vs Seguin 55.4% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 51.4%
Defensive zone
Seguin 51.7%
Neutral zone
Seguin 65.1%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Johansen
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Johansen
Seguin
Last 5: Johansen 3-2 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
0
Johansen
Seguin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Johansen
Seguin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Johansen
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (597)
56.9% (478)
-5.0%
Power Play
57.9% (133)
57.4% (54)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (81)
51.3% (76)
+3.0%
On even strength, Seguin has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Johansen is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Johansen shoots right. Seguin is 60.7% vs right-shot opponents (135).
Home / Away
Johansen
Seguin
Home
55.8% (387)
57.4% (317)
Away
50.7% (424)
55.0% (291)
By Period
Johansen
Seguin
P1
50.0%
50.3%
P2
56.2%
60.4%
P3
52.6%
58.0%
OT
75.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.6%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:42 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:37 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 12:11 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 02:25 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |