Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs McLeod 52.1% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 54.5%
Defensive zone
McLeod 85.9%
Neutral zone
McLeod 66.6%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 72.4%
27.6%
72.4%
Tavares
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Tavares
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Tavares
McLeod
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
3
Tavares
McLeod
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
52.9% (904)
+4.8%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
57.6% (59)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
49.0% (241)
+7.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. McLeod is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Tavares
McLeod
Home
59.7% (610)
51.8% (612)
Away
57.0% (698)
52.9% (592)
By Period
Tavares
McLeod
P1
57.2%
55.4%
P2
58.5%
50.8%
P3
59.4%
51.6%
OT
46.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 05:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:23 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |