Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs McLeod 47.5% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 66.5%
Defensive zone
McLeod 53.2%
Neutral zone
McLeod 57.1%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Sturm
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Sturm
McLeod
Last 7: Sturm 3-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
2
Sturm
McLeod
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
0
Sturm
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
2
Sturm
McLeod
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
48.9% (784)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
43.5% (260)
+10.9%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Sturm shoots left. McLeod is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (730).
Home / Away
Sturm
McLeod
Home
53.0% (168)
49.2% (575)
Away
56.0% (193)
45.2% (553)
By Period
Sturm
McLeod
P1
58.2%
52.6%
P2
53.2%
44.7%
P3
52.3%
45.3%
OT
100.0%
38.5%
Final 5 min
55.7%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
McLeod
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 11:00 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 17:58 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:32 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:51 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:47 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 03:35 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |