Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Sturm wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 57.1% vs McLeod 52.1% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 60.4%
Defensive zone
McLeod 55.2%
Neutral zone
McLeod 56.3%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
Sturm
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Sturm
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
3
Sturm
McLeod
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
62.1% (356)
52.9% (904)
+9.2%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
57.6% (59)
+17.4%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (62)
49.0% (241)
-10.3%
On power play, Sturm has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Sturm shoots left. McLeod is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (784).
Home / Away
Sturm
McLeod
Home
61.8% (191)
51.8% (612)
Away
56.3% (231)
52.9% (592)
By Period
Sturm
McLeod
P1
58.0%
55.4%
P2
57.9%
50.8%
P3
60.6%
51.6%
Final 5 min
58.3%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 09:03 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 05:05 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |