Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McLeod wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 47.7% vs Hertl 52.3% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 69.4%
Defensive zone
McLeod 62.8%
Neutral zone
McLeod 59.2%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
McLeod
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
McLeod
Hertl
Last 8: McLeod 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
1
McLeod
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
McLeod
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
McLeod
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (448)
51.6% (1,084)
-3.8%
Power Play
48.1% (52)
61.0% (246)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
36.0% (25)
44.1% (136)
-8.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McLeod is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (320).
McLeod shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
McLeod
Hertl
Home
46.6% (253)
55.2% (696)
Away
47.8% (272)
50.0% (770)
By Period
McLeod
Hertl
P1
43.9%
55.4%
P2
45.9%
54.8%
P3
52.1%
48.9%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.2%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2022 | 3 | 14:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 10:10 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 10:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 09:10 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 01:31 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2022 | 2 | 04:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 14, 2022 | 3 | 18:06 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |