Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 52.1% vs Hertl 55.4% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 85.5%
Defensive zone
McLeod 67.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 64.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 70.7%
29.3%
70.7%
McLeod
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McLeod
Hertl
Last 5: McLeod 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
1
McLeod
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
0
McLeod
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
0
McLeod
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (904)
54.1% (717)
-1.2%
Power Play
57.6% (59)
61.9% (210)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (241)
58.1% (31)
-9.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McLeod is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (784).
McLeod shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
McLeod
Hertl
Home
51.8% (612)
58.1% (492)
Away
52.9% (592)
53.6% (466)
By Period
McLeod
Hertl
P1
55.4%
57.1%
P2
50.8%
54.0%
P3
51.6%
56.6%
OT
40.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.9%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
52.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:52 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 09:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 15:51 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |