Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 47.8% vs Hertl 57.2% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 85.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 67.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 65.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 62.7%
37.3%
62.7%
McLeod
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
McLeod
Hertl
Last 10: McLeod 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
McLeod
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
4
0
McLeod
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McLeod
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (796)
58.1% (823)
-8.9%
Power Play
44.8% (87)
56.2% (265)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (263)
62.9% (35)
-19.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McLeod is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (748).
McLeod shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
McLeod
Hertl
Home
49.2% (575)
59.7% (561)
Away
45.9% (571)
55.9% (562)
By Period
McLeod
Hertl
P1
52.8%
51.6%
P2
45.1%
63.8%
P3
45.6%
58.6%
OT
35.7%
28.6%
Final 5 min
44.4%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 14:32 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 08:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 03:46 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:51 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:09 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |