Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tommy Novak
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% vs Novak 43.4% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 56.5%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 75.8%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 69.9%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (231)
41.4% (379)
+6.2%
Power Play
83.3% (12)
46.9% (32)
+36.4%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +36.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Home
51.2% (164)
42.6% (195)
Away
43.0% (100)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
P1
50.0%
42.4%
P2
46.2%
39.2%
P3
49.5%
44.7%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.8%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |