Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tommy Novak
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% vs Novak 43.6% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Nugent-Hopkins leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 53.2%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 76.8%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 65.7%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 69.2%
69.2%
30.8%
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Last 10: Nugent-Hopkins 8-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
5
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
4
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (8,714)
42.2% (1,366)
+2.7%
Power Play
50.3% (829)
53.3% (120)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (875)
50.0% (2)
-12.2%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,805).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Novak is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (955).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Home
46.4% (5,318)
46.0% (737)
Away
42.9% (5,112)
40.3% (751)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
P1
45.1%
43.9%
P2
43.8%
44.2%
P3
45.2%
40.9%
OT
43.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
43.7%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.7%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 17:13 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 02:47 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:50 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 19:05 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:23 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 07:48 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 02:01 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 08:53 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 2 | 08:56 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |