Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tommy Novak

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% vs Novak 43.3% (+1.8%)
H2H factor Nugent-Hopkins leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone Nugent-Hopkins 65.7%
Defensive zone Nugent-Hopkins 86.5%
Neutral zone Nugent-Hopkins 75.4%
Result Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Nugent-Hopkins Novak
Head-to-Head Record
9 - 3 (12 meetings)
9
3
Nugent-Hopkins Novak
Last 10: Nugent-Hopkins 8-2 Novak

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Nugent-Hopkins Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
5
1
Nugent-Hopkins Novak
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
4
0
Nugent-Hopkins Novak
4 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (8,756)
42.1% (1,539)
+2.8%
Power Play
50.7% (839)
51.9% (133)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (879)
50.0% (2)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +12.1% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,841).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Home
46.5% (5,350)
45.3% (814)
Away
42.9% (5,136)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
P1
45.1%
43.9%
P2
43.9%
42.8%
P3
45.3%
41.7%
OT
43.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.7%
40.4%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%
50.0%
44.7%
Novak
40.0%
42.0%
42.9%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Jan 22, 2026 2 08:54 Defensive Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Oct 17, 2024 1 11:46 Neutral Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Jan 27, 2024 3 17:13 Defensive Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Nov 4, 2023 2 02:47 Defensive Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Nov 4, 2023 2 00:50 Offensive Tommy Novak
Nov 4, 2023 1 19:05 Defensive Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Nov 4, 2023 1 17:08 Offensive Tommy Novak
Oct 17, 2023 3 00:23 Defensive Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Dec 19, 2022 3 07:48 Neutral Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Dec 19, 2022 3 02:01 Neutral Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Dec 19, 2022 2 08:53 Neutral Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Nov 3, 2021 2 08:56 Defensive Tommy Novak