Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tommy Novak
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% vs Novak 43.3% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Nugent-Hopkins leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 65.7%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 86.5%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 75.4%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Last 10: Nugent-Hopkins 8-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
5
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
4
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (8,756)
42.1% (1,539)
+2.8%
Power Play
50.7% (839)
51.9% (133)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (879)
50.0% (2)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,841).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
Home
46.5% (5,350)
45.3% (814)
Away
42.9% (5,136)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Novak
P1
45.1%
43.9%
P2
43.9%
42.8%
P3
45.3%
41.7%
OT
43.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.7%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.7%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 17:13 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 02:47 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:50 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 19:05 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 00:23 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 07:48 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 02:01 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 08:53 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 2 | 08:56 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |