Alexander Kerfoot vs Ryan O'Reilly
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kerfoot 52.0% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kerfoot 50.2%
Defensive zone
Kerfoot 80.9%
Neutral zone
Kerfoot 66.7%
Result
Alexander Kerfoot favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (356)
56.2% (983)
-3.1%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
55.5% (254)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (114)
52.0% (102)
-3.8%
On power play, Kerfoot has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kerfoot is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Kerfoot shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
Home
57.4% (235)
56.2% (697)
Away
47.9% (259)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Kerfoot
O'Reilly
P1
53.2%
54.5%
P2
53.3%
55.5%
P3
50.9%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.8%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kerfoot
52.0%▼
53.5%
52.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |