Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cogliano wins 41.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cogliano 43.6% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 74.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 64.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 77.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Cogliano
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Cogliano
O'Reilly
Last 5: Cogliano 3-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Cogliano
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cogliano
1
0
Cogliano
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cogliano
1
0
Cogliano
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cogliano
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (308)
52.5% (1,177)
-8.3%
Power Play
46.7% (15)
54.6% (130)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (53)
52.8% (108)
-17.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cogliano is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (266).
Cogliano shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,027).
Home / Away
Cogliano
O'Reilly
Home
50.0% (188)
54.9% (669)
Away
34.3% (198)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Cogliano
O'Reilly
P1
44.0%
52.4%
P2
41.3%
56.1%
P3
40.5%
49.8%
OT
44.4%
57.7%
Final 5 min
42.5%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cogliano
30.0%▼
36.5%
42.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2012 | 3 | 14:44 | Defensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Feb 27, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andrew Cogliano |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 3 | 07:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 3 | 04:17 | Offensive | Andrew Cogliano |
| Dec 31, 2011 | 2 | 02:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |