Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.4% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 79.1%
Defensive zone
Ryan 71.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 69.0%
31.0%
69.0%
Ryan
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Ryan
O'Reilly
Last 5: Ryan 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Ryan
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
61.4% (220)
56.2% (983)
+5.2%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
55.5% (254)
+44.5%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
52.0% (102)
-0.3%
On power play, Ryan has a +44.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Ryan is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (194).
Ryan shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Ryan
O'Reilly
Home
64.2% (137)
56.2% (697)
Away
55.8% (113)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Ryan
O'Reilly
P1
58.9%
54.5%
P2
62.8%
55.5%
P3
59.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.6%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
60.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 14:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 14:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 08:51 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 11:04 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |