Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 44.5% vs O'Reilly 53.2% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 74.9%
Defensive zone
Stepan 76.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 82.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
Stepan
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Stepan
O'Reilly
Last 9: Stepan 2-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Stepan
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Stepan
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Stepan
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (942)
52.7% (900)
-9.2%
Power Play
48.1% (162)
55.6% (225)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (128)
54.5% (209)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stepan is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (812).
Stepan shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Stepan
O'Reilly
Home
45.6% (629)
55.1% (693)
Away
42.5% (603)
51.6% (641)
By Period
Stepan
O'Reilly
P1
44.7%
51.5%
P2
43.7%
54.7%
P3
43.9%
52.7%
OT
40.0%
69.7%
Final 5 min
50.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2015 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 2 | 03:40 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 2 | 03:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 18:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 14:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 11:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 17:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 17:30 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |