Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rodrigues wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.9% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 76.9%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 71.7%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 74.6%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 73.8%
73.8%
26.2%
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Last 5: Rodrigues 1-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (560)
57.1% (1,367)
-10.5%
Power Play
42.4% (59)
59.4% (286)
-17.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (36)
52.5% (257)
-2.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rodrigues is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (466).
Rodrigues shoots right. O'Reilly is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (709).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Home
48.5% (379)
59.2% (936)
Away
43.5% (276)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
P1
48.8%
57.3%
P2
43.8%
57.5%
P3
45.6%
55.0%
OT
77.8%
71.1%
Final 5 min
40.8%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
46.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2019 | OT | 02:42 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 17, 2019 | 3 | 06:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2019 | 2 | 11:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2019 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2019 | 1 | 03:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |