Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McBain wins 45.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 45.9% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
McBain leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 88.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 58.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 74.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 81.1%
18.9%
81.1%
McBain
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
McBain
O'Reilly
Last 10: McBain 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
McBain
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
2
1
McBain
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (568)
55.0% (1,084)
-8.7%
Power Play
37.5% (8)
56.8% (303)
-19.3%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (74)
40.3% (149)
-2.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McBain is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McBain shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
McBain
O'Reilly
Home
50.6% (330)
54.8% (759)
Away
39.7% (320)
53.0% (777)
By Period
McBain
O'Reilly
P1
45.4%
55.3%
P2
44.5%
51.9%
P3
45.7%
54.2%
Final 5 min
48.0%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
45.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 17:15 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 01:25 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 19:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 19:02 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 07:42 | Offensive | Jack McBain |