Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 49.9% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McBain 60.2%
Defensive zone
McBain 77.9%
Neutral zone
McBain 63.5%
Result
Jack McBain favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
McBain
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McBain
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
McBain
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
McBain
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
McBain
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (424)
56.2% (983)
-5.0%
Power Play
46.2% (13)
55.5% (254)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
27.3% (22)
52.0% (102)
-24.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McBain is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (316).
McBain shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
McBain
O'Reilly
Home
53.6% (235)
56.2% (697)
Away
46.0% (224)
55.1% (642)
By Period
McBain
O'Reilly
P1
48.6%
54.5%
P2
50.9%
55.5%
P3
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
55.1%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
49.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%