Jesperi Kotkaniemi vs Ryan O'Reilly
2019-20 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kotkaniemi on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kotkaniemi wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kotkaniemi 44.6% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-13.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 52.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 85.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 73.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
Last 5: Kotkaniemi 3-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
3
0
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
42.6% (270)
57.3% (1,073)
-14.7%
Power Play
47.4% (19)
58.5% (258)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
50.7% (225)
-17.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (186).
Kotkaniemi shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (962).
Home / Away
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
Home
42.8% (166)
59.2% (765)
Away
42.9% (126)
54.0% (791)
By Period
Kotkaniemi
O'Reilly
P1
40.2%
55.6%
P2
45.5%
61.0%
P3
42.7%
52.3%
Final 5 min
36.1%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
42.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2019 | 3 | 06:28 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 16:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 03:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 1 | 04:22 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 16:28 | Offensive | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |