Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Toews wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.6% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 28-17 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 83.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 81.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 79.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 80.5%
19.5%
80.5%
Toews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
28
(45 meetings)
17
28
Toews
O'Reilly
Last 10: Toews 1-9 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
6
4
Toews
O'Reilly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
9
Toews
O'Reilly
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
10
15
Toews
O'Reilly
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.5% (775)
52.5% (1,177)
+6.0%
Power Play
64.9% (225)
54.6% (130)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
55.8% (120)
52.8% (108)
+3.0%
On power play, Toews has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Toews is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Toews shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,027).
Home / Away
Toews
O'Reilly
Home
63.0% (567)
54.9% (669)
Away
55.8% (570)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Toews
O'Reilly
P1
59.6%
52.4%
P2
58.2%
56.1%
P3
60.7%
49.8%
OT
52.4%
57.7%
Final 5 min
59.0%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 14:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 07:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 02:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 02:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 2 | 19:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 2 | 14:53 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 2 | 14:38 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 2 | 07:35 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 2 | 02:57 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 1 | 10:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 1 | 10:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 1 | 06:06 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2012 | 3 | 10:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |