Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Toews wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 59.0% vs O'Reilly 52.3% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 52.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 65.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 58.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
Toews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Toews
O'Reilly
Last 10: Toews 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
1
Toews
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Toews
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Toews
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.3% (736)
53.6% (392)
+3.7%
Power Play
71.4% (133)
47.2% (36)
+24.2%
Penalty Kill
66.1% (62)
50.0% (28)
+16.1%
On power play, Toews has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Toews is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Toews shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
Toews
O'Reilly
Home
61.0% (479)
54.4% (237)
Away
58.8% (454)
51.1% (219)
By Period
Toews
O'Reilly
P1
61.3%
50.3%
P2
57.9%
51.4%
P3
59.3%
55.7%
OT
73.3%
71.4%
Final 5 min
60.1%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
59.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2013 | 2 | 10:41 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 2 | 07:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 1 | 11:25 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 1 | 09:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 1 | 05:04 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 1 | 02:53 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2013 | 3 | 18:20 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 6, 2013 | 3 | 15:25 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 6, 2013 | 3 | 09:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |