Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Toews wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.0% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 20-8 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 72.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 69.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 69.6%
30.4%
69.6%
Toews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
20
(28 meetings)
8
20
Toews
O'Reilly
Last 10: Toews 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
5
Toews
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
7
Toews
O'Reilly
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
8
Toews
O'Reilly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (1,200)
56.9% (1,203)
+1.3%
Power Play
62.8% (250)
60.2% (329)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (123)
50.4% (280)
+3.3%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Toews is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (943).
Toews shoots left. O'Reilly is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Home / Away
Toews
O'Reilly
Home
59.8% (805)
58.6% (879)
Away
57.3% (768)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Toews
O'Reilly
P1
60.2%
55.6%
P2
60.7%
57.9%
P3
55.9%
55.7%
OT
44.8%
62.5%
Final 5 min
61.8%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
58.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2016 | 3 | 18:52 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 3 | 15:01 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 3 | 09:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 2 | 04:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 2 | 00:07 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 1 | 15:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 1 | 12:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 1 | 12:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 1 | 08:56 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 1 | 02:29 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2015 | OT | 02:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2015 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 19, 2015 | 3 | 17:27 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 19, 2015 | 3 | 13:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2015 | 3 | 11:39 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |