Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.3% vs 56.9%). Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings). Toews wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 56.0% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 34-17 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 55.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.3%
Neutral zone
Toews 50.7%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Toews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
34
(51 meetings)
17
34
Toews
O'Reilly
Last 10: Toews 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
11
Toews
O'Reilly
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
11
Toews
O'Reilly
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
12
Toews
O'Reilly
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (1,310)
57.1% (1,367)
-0.6%
Power Play
59.7% (325)
59.4% (286)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (245)
52.5% (257)
-1.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Toews is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,218).
Toews shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
Home / Away
Toews
O'Reilly
Home
56.6% (927)
59.2% (936)
Away
56.0% (953)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Toews
O'Reilly
P1
56.3%
57.3%
P2
55.8%
57.5%
P3
57.3%
55.0%
OT
48.6%
71.1%
Final 5 min
57.3%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2019 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 3 | 17:38 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 3 | 16:56 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 3 | 11:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 3 | 01:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 2 | 17:09 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 2 | 14:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 2 | 02:56 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 1 | 03:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 3, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2018 | 3 | 19:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2018 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 14, 2018 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 14, 2018 | 3 | 07:01 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 14, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2018 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 14, 2018 | 2 | 09:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2018 | 2 | 07:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |