Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 51.8% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 53.0%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 83.7%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 64.6%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Last 7: Zibanejad 1-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (870)
56.2% (983)
-3.3%
Power Play
53.5% (43)
55.5% (254)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (143)
52.0% (102)
-5.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Zibanejad shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
Home
55.1% (501)
56.2% (697)
Away
49.2% (555)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Zibanejad
O'Reilly
P1
57.5%
54.5%
P2
50.7%
55.5%
P3
47.9%
57.1%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.2%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 16:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:32 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 15:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 02:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |