Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 50.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 91.0%
Neutral zone
Backlund 70.2%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 61.6%
61.6%
38.4%
Backlund
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
Backlund
O'Reilly
Last 10: Backlund 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
6
Backlund
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Backlund
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Backlund
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
55.0% (1,084)
-4.0%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
56.8% (303)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
40.3% (149)
+2.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Backlund is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,012).
Backlund shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Backlund
O'Reilly
Home
51.2% (782)
54.8% (759)
Away
49.4% (765)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Backlund
O'Reilly
P1
51.5%
55.3%
P2
49.8%
51.9%
P3
49.9%
54.2%
OT
37.5%
64.7%
Final 5 min
50.5%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 02:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 16:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 15:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 01:01 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 15:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 18:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 10:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 09:30 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 09:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |