Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Roy wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.3% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 92.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 71.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 77.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 78.3%
21.7%
78.3%
Roy
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Roy
O'Reilly
Last 5: Roy 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
0
Roy
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (633)
56.1% (690)
-7.8%
Power Play
52.1% (48)
64.6% (96)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
43.7% (87)
45.9% (109)
-2.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Roy is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (550).
Roy shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Roy
O'Reilly
Home
50.8% (376)
58.3% (408)
Away
45.4% (392)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Roy
O'Reilly
P1
53.8%
57.7%
P2
43.5%
54.8%
P3
46.4%
55.2%
OT
75.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
47.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2022 | OT | 03:17 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 19:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 03:19 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 16:06 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 10:13 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |