Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Roy wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.9% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 94.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 75.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 84.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 84.6%
15.4%
84.6%
Roy
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Roy
O'Reilly
Last 6: Roy 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
3
1
Roy
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
3
1
Roy
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (679)
56.2% (983)
-7.6%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
55.5% (254)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (49)
52.0% (102)
-17.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Roy shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Roy
O'Reilly
Home
49.3% (345)
56.2% (697)
Away
46.4% (433)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Roy
O'Reilly
P1
47.6%
54.5%
P2
47.1%
55.5%
P3
47.9%
57.1%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 17:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 19:04 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:22 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:39 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 18:32 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |