Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Cates wins 43.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.1% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-11.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 75.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 93.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 82.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Cates
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Cates
O'Reilly
Last 10: Cates 1-9 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
6
Cates
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Cates
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Cates
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (912)
56.2% (983)
-9.5%
Power Play
33.9% (56)
55.5% (254)
-21.6%
Penalty Kill
35.0% (137)
52.0% (102)
-17.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +21.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Cates shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Cates
O'Reilly
Home
46.1% (521)
56.2% (697)
Away
43.3% (584)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Cates
O'Reilly
P1
48.0%
54.5%
P2
42.3%
55.5%
P3
44.3%
57.1%
OT
31.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.5%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 18:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 11:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:31 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 00:06 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 19:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |