Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.1% vs 56.5%). Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.6% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 57.5%
Defensive zone
Stastny 53.1%
Neutral zone
Stastny 53.1%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Stastny
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Stastny
O'Reilly
Last 9: Stastny 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stastny
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Stastny
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Stastny
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (967)
56.9% (1,203)
-0.4%
Power Play
58.4% (125)
60.2% (329)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (128)
50.4% (280)
+0.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Stastny is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (765).
Stastny shoots left. O'Reilly is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Home / Away
Stastny
O'Reilly
Home
56.8% (590)
58.6% (879)
Away
55.4% (630)
54.6% (933)
By Period
Stastny
O'Reilly
P1
59.7%
55.6%
P2
54.8%
57.9%
P3
53.8%
55.7%
OT
60.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
55.6%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 18:06 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 13:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 11:06 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 2 | 19:30 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2015 | 1 | 15:12 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |