Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Strome 44.6% (+11.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 30-19 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 90.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 93.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 93.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 92.2%
92.2%
7.8%
O'Reilly
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
19
(49 meetings)
30
19
O'Reilly
Strome
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
10
5
O'Reilly
Strome
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
13
9
O'Reilly
Strome
22 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
5
O'Reilly
Strome
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
44.1% (6,839)
+12.1%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
49.3% (854)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
41.5% (410)
+9.9%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
O'Reilly shoots left. Strome is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,726).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Strome
Home
57.6% (10,762)
44.4% (4,046)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
44.7% (4,057)
By Period
O'Reilly
Strome
P1
55.6%
44.0%
P2
57.0%
45.3%
P3
55.1%
44.3%
OT
62.2%
46.3%
Final 5 min
55.3%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:31 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 05:22 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 09:19 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 07:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 07:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:48 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 17:36 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 10:51 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 1 | 11:37 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 09:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 1 | 07:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 14:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 00:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 2 | 11:19 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 2, 2022 | 3 | 09:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 19:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2020 | 3 | 10:58 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |