Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Strome 42.3% (+14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 51.9%
Defensive zone
Strome 59.9%
Neutral zone
Strome 59.6%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
O'Reilly
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
O'Reilly
Strome
Last 9: O'Reilly 4-5 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Strome
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Strome
2
4
O'Reilly
Strome
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Strome
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
41.2% (1,040)
+15.0%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
43.0% (151)
+12.5%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
51.4% (35)
+0.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
O'Reilly shoots left. Strome is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (900).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Strome
Home
56.2% (697)
40.1% (581)
Away
55.1% (642)
43.1% (645)
By Period
O'Reilly
Strome
P1
54.5%
41.4%
P2
55.5%
42.9%
P3
57.1%
40.5%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
56.2%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
41.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:31 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 05:22 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 09:19 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 07:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 07:50 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:48 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |