Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 25 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Gagner 46.0% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 40-35 in 75 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 57.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 83.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 73.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 71.4%
71.4%
28.6%
O'Reilly
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
40
-
35
(75 meetings)
40
35
O'Reilly
Gagner
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
11
14
O'Reilly
Gagner
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
16
9
O'Reilly
Gagner
25 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
13
12
O'Reilly
Gagner
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
45.4% (4,699)
+10.8%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
51.5% (928)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
35.0% (226)
+16.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gagner
Home
57.6% (10,762)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gagner
P1
55.6%
44.6%
P2
57.0%
46.1%
P3
55.1%
47.3%
OT
62.2%
42.0%
Final 5 min
55.3%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 13:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 14:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 08:52 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 1 | 08:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 1 | 15:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 20, 2017 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 20, 2017 | 1 | 11:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 20, 2017 | 1 | 11:25 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 2 | 12:32 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 1 | 19:02 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 1 | 13:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 1 | 13:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2017 | 1 | 13:00 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 3 | 19:51 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 3 | 19:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 11, 2017 | 3 | 05:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 10, 2017 | 2 | 05:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |