Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 53.7% vs Gagner 52.4% (-8.6%)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 61.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
O'Reilly
Gagner
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (1,084)
76.5% (17)
-21.5%
Power Play
56.8% (303)
28.6% (7)
+28.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +28.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gagner is 61.1% vs left-shot opponents (18).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gagner
Home
54.8% (759)
75.0% (16)
Away
53.0% (777)
37.5% (8)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gagner
P1
55.3%
25.0%
P2
51.9%
64.3%
P3
54.2%
83.3%
Final 5 min
56.3%
70.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
62.5%