Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.4% vs Gagner 47.5% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.2%
Defensive zone
Gagner 59.4%
Neutral zone
Gagner 58.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
O'Reilly
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
O'Reilly
Gagner
Last 6: O'Reilly 3-3 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
0
O'Reilly
Gagner
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
3
O'Reilly
Gagner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (1,064)
51.3% (158)
+5.3%
Power Play
60.4% (260)
66.7% (36)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
54.0% (261)
33.6% (110)
+20.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gagner is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (240).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gagner
Home
54.9% (801)
53.2% (154)
Away
58.7% (784)
40.0% (150)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gagner
P1
58.0%
35.6%
P2
56.7%
52.7%
P3
55.4%
51.9%
OT
64.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.4%
34.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 13:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 14:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 3 | 08:52 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 1 | 08:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |