Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +21.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.2% vs Gagner 42.6% (+21.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 79.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 88.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 85.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 85.9%
85.9%
14.1%
O'Reilly
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
O'Reilly
Gagner
Last 7: O'Reilly 5-2 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
O'Reilly
Gagner
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
0
O'Reilly
Gagner
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Gagner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (1,203)
34.5% (84)
+22.4%
Power Play
60.2% (329)
38.5% (13)
+21.7%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. O'Reilly is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (701).
O'Reilly shoots left. Gagner is 29.7% vs left-shot opponents (64).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Gagner
Home
58.6% (879)
32.6% (46)
Away
54.6% (933)
37.3% (51)
By Period
O'Reilly
Gagner
P1
55.6%
34.5%
P2
57.9%
23.3%
P3
55.7%
45.9%
OT
62.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
23.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
35.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2015 | 3 | 09:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2015 | 3 | 01:51 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 10:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 09:38 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 08:14 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 27, 2015 | 2 | 12:06 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |