Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Reinhart 42.7% (+14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 95.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 77.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 84.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 86.5%
86.5%
13.5%
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Last 7: O'Reilly 6-1 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
0
O'Reilly
Reinhart
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Reinhart
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
44.1% (324)
+12.1%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
40.3% (72)
+15.2%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
33.9% (118)
+18.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
O'Reilly shoots left. Reinhart is 38.1% vs left-shot opponents (423).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Home
56.2% (697)
40.5% (232)
Away
55.1% (642)
41.8% (282)
By Period
O'Reilly
Reinhart
P1
54.5%
46.4%
P2
55.5%
32.6%
P3
57.1%
45.4%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
41.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:43 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 16:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 04:53 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 15:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |