Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Reinhart 43.3% (+12.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 20-10 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 95.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 97.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 96.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 96.0%
96.0%
4.0%
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
10
(30 meetings)
20
10
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Last 10: O'Reilly 8-2 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
9
7
O'Reilly
Reinhart
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
9
3
O'Reilly
Reinhart
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Reinhart
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,260)
42.5% (2,173)
+13.7%
Power Play
58.8% (3,445)
46.5% (525)
+12.3%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,811)
41.3% (339)
+10.1%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
O'Reilly shoots left. Reinhart is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,283).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Reinhart
Home
57.6% (10,762)
44.9% (1,528)
Away
54.4% (10,787)
41.2% (1,509)
By Period
O'Reilly
Reinhart
P1
55.6%
44.5%
P2
57.0%
40.5%
P3
55.1%
44.5%
OT
62.2%
43.5%
Final 5 min
55.3%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 12:59 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 10:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:43 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 16:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 04:53 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 15:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 17:41 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 3 | 04:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 2 | 16:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 2 | 08:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 22, 2024 | 1 | 18:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 09:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 08:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 17:32 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |