Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 52.6% vs Stamkos 45.8% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 72.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 90.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 90.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 88.1%
88.1%
11.9%
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
0
(8 meetings)
8
0
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Last 8: O'Reilly 8-0 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
0
O'Reilly
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
0
O'Reilly
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (1,177)
45.6% (1,055)
+6.9%
Power Play
54.6% (130)
46.6% (116)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (108)
42.1% (38)
+10.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. O'Reilly is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (416).
O'Reilly shoots left. Stamkos is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (890).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Home
54.9% (669)
48.4% (636)
Away
51.0% (774)
42.3% (591)
By Period
O'Reilly
Stamkos
P1
52.4%
45.7%
P2
56.1%
46.8%
P3
49.8%
43.7%
OT
57.7%
48.0%
Final 5 min
53.3%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2011 | OT | 02:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | OT | 00:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 3 | 13:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 2 | 03:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 14:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 23, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |