Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.3% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+5.8%)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 69.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 50.4%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 58.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
O'Reilly
Stamkos
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (983)
49.3% (670)
+6.9%
Power Play
55.5% (254)
53.7% (121)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (102)
33.3% (3)
+18.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
O'Reilly shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Home
56.2% (697)
54.0% (400)
Away
55.1% (642)
45.7% (394)
By Period
O'Reilly
Stamkos
P1
54.5%
48.6%
P2
55.5%
54.5%
P3
57.1%
45.4%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%