Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.4% vs 55.7%). O'Reilly wins 55.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.9% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-0.3%)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 60.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 70.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
O'Reilly
Stamkos
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (826)
56.1% (342)
-0.7%
Power Play
57.9% (221)
53.3% (92)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (129)
62.5% (8)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
O'Reilly shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Home
55.8% (579)
53.4% (208)
Away
54.9% (597)
57.7% (234)
By Period
O'Reilly
Stamkos
P1
57.7%
55.6%
P2
54.8%
52.8%
P3
54.3%
59.1%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%