Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.2% vs Stamkos 53.4% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 63.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 70.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.0%
57.0%
43.0%
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Last 8: O'Reilly 5-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (690)
55.3% (628)
+0.8%
Power Play
64.6% (96)
55.1% (216)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (109)
40.2% (87)
+5.7%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
O'Reilly shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Home
58.3% (408)
55.5% (499)
Away
53.6% (487)
51.9% (432)
By Period
O'Reilly
Stamkos
P1
57.7%
50.7%
P2
54.8%
53.8%
P3
55.2%
55.9%
OT
45.5%
87.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:49 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 10:49 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 1 | 05:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |