Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Oshie on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Oshie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Oshie 46.4% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Oshie leads 12-12 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Oshie 86.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.9%
Neutral zone
Oshie 57.3%
Result
T.J. Oshie favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
O'Reilly
Oshie
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
12
(24 meetings)
12
12
O'Reilly
Oshie
Last 10: O'Reilly 4-6 Oshie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Oshie
4
10
O'Reilly
Oshie
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
1
O'Reilly
Oshie
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Oshie
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Oshie
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,103)
45.2% (764)
+11.0%
Power Play
58.7% (3,395)
47.7% (1,221)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (2,769)
40.2% (164)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Oshie shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,572).
O'Reilly shoots left. Oshie is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,672).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Oshie
Home
57.6% (10,669)
48.7% (1,103)
Away
54.4% (10,631)
43.7% (1,047)
By Period
O'Reilly
Oshie
P1
55.5%
47.3%
P2
57.0%
45.2%
P3
55.2%
46.7%
OT
62.7%
40.8%
Final 5 min
55.4%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Oshie
32.0%▼
43.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2019 | OT | 02:15 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Oct 2, 2019 | OT | 01:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 2, 2019 | 1 | 11:51 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 14, 2019 | 3 | 02:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 14, 2019 | 2 | 15:00 | Neutral | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 14, 2019 | 2 | 11:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 14, 2019 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 14, 2019 | 2 | 00:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2018 | 2 | 11:39 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 1 | 18:20 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 9, 2016 | 2 | 10:52 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 9, 2016 | 1 | 17:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 2 | 09:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 1 | 18:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 1 | 14:33 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 30, 2015 | 3 | 07:26 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 30, 2015 | 3 | 03:44 | Defensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 30, 2015 | 1 | 17:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |