Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Oshie on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.2% vs Oshie 51.9% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Oshie leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Oshie 75.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 73.2%
Neutral zone
Oshie 57.4%
Result
T.J. Oshie favored at 64.2%
35.8%
64.2%
O'Reilly
Oshie
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
O'Reilly
Oshie
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Oshie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Oshie
3
4
O'Reilly
Oshie
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Oshie
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Oshie
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Oshie
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (1,203)
51.4% (35)
+5.5%
Power Play
60.2% (329)
53.5% (170)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
50.4% (280)
50.9% (57)
-0.5%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Oshie shoots right. O'Reilly is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (701).
O'Reilly shoots left. Oshie is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Oshie
Home
58.6% (879)
59.4% (138)
Away
54.6% (933)
45.2% (124)
By Period
O'Reilly
Oshie
P1
55.6%
53.4%
P2
57.9%
48.9%
P3
55.7%
55.1%
OT
62.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.4%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.5%
Oshie
32.0%▼
43.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2016 | 3 | 14:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 2 | 09:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 1 | 18:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2016 | 1 | 14:33 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 30, 2015 | 3 | 07:26 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 30, 2015 | 3 | 03:44 | Defensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 30, 2015 | 1 | 17:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 2 | 05:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 28, 2015 | 1 | 05:17 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |