Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 58.3% vs right-shot opponents — Oshie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.5% vs Oshie 43.9% (+15.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Oshie 53.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 87.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 64.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 66.5%
66.5%
33.5%
O'Reilly
Oshie
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
O'Reilly
Oshie
Last 5: O'Reilly 3-2 Oshie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Oshie
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Oshie
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Oshie
0
1
O'Reilly
Oshie
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Oshie
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (1,367)
41.2% (51)
+15.9%
Power Play
59.4% (286)
41.8% (141)
+17.6%
Penalty Kill
52.5% (257)
30.8% (13)
+21.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Oshie shoots right. O'Reilly is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (709).
O'Reilly shoots left. Oshie is 41.4% vs left-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Oshie
Home
59.2% (936)
42.4% (118)
Away
54.6% (974)
39.1% (87)
By Period
O'Reilly
Oshie
P1
57.3%
39.1%
P2
57.5%
38.0%
P3
55.0%
45.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
39.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Oshie
32.0%▼
43.0%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2019 | 3 | 02:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 14, 2019 | 2 | 15:00 | Neutral | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 14, 2019 | 2 | 11:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 14, 2019 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 14, 2019 | 2 | 00:28 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |